Road to nowhere or bright future?
Road to nowhere or bright future?
#CapturingChange #45
What future do roads have?
Cars and trucks might not be the first things that come to mind when you think of future means of transport. But that may be a mistake.
With battery and hydrogen, there are two types of drives compatible with a CO2 emission-free future. What is less known: The roads these vehicles will drive on will also change for the better.
First, the present.
Private vehicles account for more than 80 per cent of travelled kilometres per passenger in the European Union. And road transport accounts for 75 per cent of the total inland freight transport.
"In almost all advanced economies globally, transportation continues to rely heavily on the ever-growing road network, which measures 6.2 million kilometres, just in the EU", a report written by the consulting company McKinsey says.
Second, the future.
According to that report, four trends will impact future road design and construction.
1) Digitization enables smart roads that improve lane capacity and increase road capabilities. McKinsey: "Roads will change from a purely mechanical asphalt structure with some systems for traffic density to a system of measuring and guiding. Using sensors either embedded in the road structure (in the case of newly constructed roads) or positioned around the road (in the case of existing roads) for guidance enables vehicles to drive closer together and is expected to increase lane capacity by 50 per cent."
2) New construction materials increase road durability strongly. Again, the report: "Newly constructed roads can be built using new construction materials such as plastic in their asphalt mix, which make roads up to 60 per cent stronger than conventional asphalt roadways and are thus suited to accommodate more vehicles per kilometre of road."
3) Automation in road construction will increase productivity and profit margins. McKinsey: "Since 2000, the median average cost per lane-kilometre has declined from 9.5 million to 7.6 million US dollars." This development will continue, the consultants say. The construction cost per lane-kilometre is expected to decrease by roughly 30 per cent by 2050 compared to today.
4) The road width may shrink by a third as soon as autonomous vehicles reach a critical mass (which will take a while, since by 2035, 15 per cent of vehicles sold globally are expected to be equipped with fully autonomous capabilities). McKinsey: "Autonomous driving guarantees unrivalled precision and reliability, which will eliminate the need for lanes that are much wider than vehicles. Whereas traditional lanes, usually with a width between 3.50 and 3.75 meters, are devised to account for human error, the width of future lanes could be reduced to 2.8 meters and still accommodate oversized vehicles. Roads exclusively dedicated to passenger cars could have lanes as narrow as 2.5 meters. This means that a four-lane road could be up to 4 meters narrower than today."
So, at first glance, tomorrow's roads may look like yesterday's since they will get narrower. But they'll last longer, be built faster, and carry more traffic. And since the transport can be CO2-neutrally, this form of transportation will quite certainly have a future.
Onwards,
Johannes Eber