Understanding rational thinking (but weak) Putin

Why the Russian dictator stopped allowing Ukraine grain exports / #30

Grain just before harvest / I took this photo on 31 July 2021

Just a quick thought this morning. A hopeful conclusion behind a piece of sad news.

Putin has suspended a deal to allow grain exports from Ukraine.

This is bad news for many countries around the world, especially in Africa and the Middle East.

But there is also a good aspect to it when you consider why Putin made the decision.

Here’s the simple thought.

Would a confident, sure of victory Putin block grain exports from Ukraine? Probably not. He would present himself magnanimously to the world. But Putin can no longer afford to appear generous. He has to hope that the West will pressure Ukraine to enter ceasefire negotiations (so that, for example, grain can be exported again). Putin blocking grain exports shows how (militarily) weak he has become.

That's the good side of this piece of bad news.

Hopefully, Putin's Russia will soon be so weak militarily that it will no longer be able to determine whether Ukraine can export its grain.

Onwards,

Johannes Eber