Where are you heading, CDU?

Illustrated notes from a changing country / #42

Good morning from Germany, 

There is a change in a political office that is more important than the person and office initially suggest.

The position of secretary general of the major catch-all party of the centre-right in German politics, CDU, will switch from Mario Czaja to Carsten Linnemann. 

The secretary general is second in rank to the party leader, who is, in the case of the CDU, Friedrich Merz. 

The reason for this change? The development of the political rival of the CDU, more precisely, the strengthening of the right-wing, partly extremist, party Alternative for Germany, short AfD (we've talked about that lately). CDU is increasingly losing potential voters to AfD.

The fact that CDU party leader Merz has chosen a new general secretary is an attempt to stop the drain of voters, or rather, he wants to reverse the trend. The crucial question is, will Merz succeed with this move?

What is in favor for Merz’s decission: Linnemann is more conservative than his predecessor and a friend of pithy words. With him, CDU is able to win voters who are undecided between voting for AfD and CDU.

But this move comes with a price. At the other end of the party's voting spectrum, CDU will lose those voters who are more in the political centre and who will, with the replacement by Linnemann, tend to vote for other parties in the political centre, i.e. the Social Democrats from the SPD, the Liberals from the FDP or the Greens.

However, I assume the CDU can win more votes on its right spectrum than it will lose in the middle. Why? Because the three parties in the middle (SPD, FDP, the Greens) are all part of the current federal government. Any voter dissatisfied with the government's work has almost no choice in the next election. If voters do not want to strengthen the fringes (the AfD on the very right, Die Linke on the left), only the CDU remains to vote for.

So making Linnemann secretary general has potential for the CDU in the short term.

In the long term, however, the calculation could look very different. Because the attempt to win back AfD voters will not be possible without the party shifting to the right (at least verbally). 

The CDU must approach AfD. Strong words, polemical language, and thematic docking with right-wing voter interests will be necessary. The incumbents in CDU will find many nice comments to explain why their party is still very different from AfD. This rhetoric is part of the political competition. Parties need distinctiveness. But still, it will be an approach towards the right.

And this rapprochement with AfD voters poses a risk for CDU, namely that the integrative power of Germany's largest conservative political movement can get lost. That could end fatally, not only for the party but also for Germany.

Here is why. 

Despite the diverse party landscape, there is a tendency towards polemics in my country (presumably a consequence of new forms of media use). Car drivers against cyclists, nuclear energy supporters against renewable energy friends, language purists against supporters of gendered language, Ukraine supporters against Putin understanders, townspeople against country folk – Germany is increasingly becoming a divided society. 

The political parties are reacting to this. They each use one of the two positions in search of a clear edge. Either the bicycle fraction is wooed or the motorists, either the need to adapt language to new social realities is advocated, or gendered language is demonized – there is nothing in between anymore.

By turning to one side, politics itself drives the division of society.

This is bad for a democratic society because we all need basic consensus and common ground. And this will be bad for CDU if the number of those fed up with division will increase. When the group of people grows, for whom gender or non-gender in language is not the most important thing in life. When the group grows who support climate protection and still want prosperity. When the group of people grows for who a diverse life in freedom is a great asset and who want to live as good in the future as they do today but know – at least have a hunch – that therefore change is needed. 

So far, the CDU has been a home for these people. The party will have to pay attention not to deprive them of their political homeland.

Greetings from Germany, 

Johannes Eber

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